UPDATE: An insider’s opinion on what went wrong at Bombardier. With the TSX:BBD.B stock at $1.19 (Dec 11, 2015), a drop of 75.2% from year ago today and a 13.7% drop from only a month ago, it is obvious that the investment community is not buying the 5 year transformation plan presented at the company’s Investor Day in New York on November 24th. The plan calls for revenue growth to $25 billion by 2020, with Business Aircraft to hit $9.1 billion with the G7000 alone ? as the G8000 is no longer mentioned by Bombardier and the Challenger 650 is fading while the Learjets are dying. Meanwhile Commercial Aircraft plans to hit $5.8 billion in revenue (with only CS100/300’s as the CRJ and Q400 sales have little life left and by 2020 they surely will not be in production). While Transportation (trains) goes to $9.4 billion and Aerostructure grows to $0.7 billion (70% from Bombardier). Already plans are in place to out source Q400 and CRJ work to Mexico and Morocco as those brands fade into history, as current backlog of Q400’s at 73 units (36 months of production) and CRJ line with 75+/- backlog (15 months of production), the company is now looking for it’s workers for labor concessions in Belfast and Toronto. The company plans to deliver anywhere between 255 and 315 CSeries by the end of 2020, when production should be 90-120 units annually, so it is estimating a net average unit (CS100 and CS300) price of between $64 million at 90 units or $48 million at 120 units, either way it won’t reach $5.8 billion (at BEST $4.8 billion) when the price will be at best $42 million for the CS 300 and $36 million for the CS100 due to heavy price discounting competition from Airbus, Boeing and by 2020 new entrants like Comac and Irkut on their respective narrowbody aircraft. As for business jets, hitting $9.1B that is a far stretch as well, The Challenger 650 (a 35+ year old Canadair CL-600) will not be competitive by then, the Learjet line is dying as I write this, while the current Global G5000/6000 (current “cash cow” for Aerospace) is finding it hard to compete today and accordingly production is being reduced to 50 and much lower, and by before 2018 the G5000/6000 will struggle for any orders, and will be done as the new Gulfstream G500/600/650ER and Dassault 8X take over that segment. The ultra long range segment above $75 million (Global 7000 is priced at $75 million) has delivered 161 Boeing 737 Business Jets (BBJ’s) in 17 years, Airbus has delivered 116 A320/319 Airbus Corporate Jets (ACJ’s) in that time, or 277 narrowbody business jets (or just 16.3 aircraft per year on average), show me where is this market for business jets over $75 million ? governments and a few billionaires, but realistically a small market that Bombardier once again over estimated, and will pay the price for entering into. The competition here is VIP versions of commercial airliners offering great prices and much more comfort with huge cabins, the $75 million G7000 has a cabin of 2,657 ft3 and will fly up to 7,900nm the $87 million (big discounts available as low as $50 million), while the new ACJ A319neo has a cabin of 5,843 ft3 (2.2 x larger than G7000) with a range of 6,500 nm, and it will be tough going for sure.The future of Bombardier Aerospace is down to the CSeries and G7000 programs, in highly questionable markets segments that are most likely not going to support the company’s ambitions of mass production and large sales goals, they rolled the nice and they just may end up losing the company in the end.
I will start with my usual lack of progress report on Bombardier and where it is heading, and then further below is the unedited opinion of a Bombardier insider on what the heck has been going on at the very troubled OEM. I can report on what I see for the point of view of […]